Modelling study of benefits and risks associated with the COVID-19 vaccine Vaxzevria

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On April 7, 2021, the European Medical Agency (EMA) concluded that thrombosis in combination with thrombocytopenia has been identified as a likely adverse event following vaccination with the COVID-19 vaccine Vaxzevria. Researchers from the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit at the Institut Pasteur used a mathematical model to assess its benefits and risks in metropolitan France accounting for the indirect effect of vaccination as well as the availability of alternative vaccines. Across a range of scenarios, the benefits associated with Vaxzevria distribution in people 55 years and older largely outperformed the risks of death from COVID-19. In young adults, the risks were higher than or of similar magnitude as the benefits. These results contributed to the National Autority of Health (HAS) and ANSM (French agency for medicine and health products) recommendations.

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Benefits and risks associated with different uses of the COVID-19 vaccine Vaxzevria : a modelling study, France,  Eurosurveillance, 1er juillet 2021

Cécile Tran Kiem1,2, Alessio Andronico1, Paolo Bosetti1, Juliette Paireau1,3, Lise Alter4, Pierre-Yves Boëlle5, Arnaud Fontanet6,7, Daniel Lévy-Bruhl3, Simon Cauchemez1

1. Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, UMR2000, CNRS, Paris, France
2. Collège Doctoral, Sorbonne Université, Paris, France
3. Santé Publique France, French National Public Health Agency, Saint-Maurice, France
4. Haute Autorité de Santé, Saint-Denis la Plaine, France
5. Institut Pierre Louis d’Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique, Sorbonne Université, INSERM, Paris, France
6. Emerging Diseases Epidemiology Unit, Institut Pasteur, Paris, France
7. PACRI Unit, Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, Paris, France

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