Aaron King

Aaron KING


How to tell if the honeymoon is over: testing hypotheses about pertussis and its resurgence


Abstract: Pertussis (whooping cough) is currently resurgent in the U.S. and several other countries, despite high and sustained vaccine coverage.  In this talk, I use stochastic, nonlinear dynamical systems models as expressions of several competing hypotheses for the resurgence and confront them with long time series of epidemiological data to try and sort out the best explanation.  Along the way, I'll discuss some of vaccination's counterintuitive consequences, the challenges of statistical inference based on nonlinear, stochastic models, and some useful new algorithmic developments that help overcome them.

Mis à jour le 10/04/2014