Statistical and Mathematical Modeling in Biological Applications
Trends of pneumococcal meningitis: unmasking the role of winter viruses and antimicrobial drugs
Abstract: Pneumococcal meningitis is a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide resulting in potentially severe relapse. The mechanisms responsible for the epidemiological patterns of susceptible- and resistant-pneumococcal meningitides, which include a yearly winter peak, are poorly understood. In this talk, we investigate potential interactions between pneumococcal meningitis incidence and both acute viral respiratory infections (AVRI) and drug consumption (antibiotics and vaccine). In a first step, French time series of pneumococcal meningitides, AVRI and beta-lactam prescriptions in the pre-vaccine era are analyzed. Mathematical modelling of pneumococcal meningitis dynamics is then used to explore the interaction between meningitis, AVRI and antibiotic exposure: four hypothetical models are developed and their abilities to reproduce the 2001-2004 meningitides dynamics are compared. In a second step, the analysis is extended to the post anti-pneumococcal-vaccine era and hypotheses related to serotypes replacement and strain competition are investigated.